Saturday, July 04, 2009

Wish List for the Phone of the Future


The pace of technological innovation in mobile phones over the past decade has been astonishing. Even the most imaginative futurologist in 1999 would have been amazed at the diverse range of powerful communication, productivity and multimedia features now crammed into the small devices in our pockets.


Gazing towards the next 10 years, it would be great to see these features emerge in mobile phones:

  • Battery that is constantly recharged kinetically (when moving around)

  • Artificial Intelligence that simulates a human personal assistant (e.g. when an anniversary comes up, searches for a selection of gifts based on the event and the celebrant; tell it you want to go on a holiday and it books the flight and hotel based on your tastes and budget and also plans your itinerary for sightseeing, nights out, etc.)

  • Bluetooth virtual reality glasses to watch HD movies and play games

  • Client device functionality with application processing and data storage done on remote servers (cloud computing)

  • Universal remote control functionality, using DLNA

  • Social network application that detects people with matching criteria in the same vicinity, using bluetooth or wi-fi (e.g. strangers with similar interests on a bus are alerted about each other and can choose to strike a face-to-face conversation)

  • P2P file distribution using bluetooth or wi-fi (e.g. multimedia files transferred from several phones near-by without requiring phone network or mobile internet)

  • Realtime translator (microphone picks up the foreign language audio and the translated speech is relayed through the speaker)

  • Full range stereo speakers for high fidelity sound (e.g. using carbon nanotubes)


Of course, the wish list can stretch as far as the imagination will go but these would be an exciting starting point for the next wave of mobile phone innovation!


Monday, May 25, 2009

Less Speculation, More Production


Vivian: And you don't make anything…

Edward: No.

Vivian: … and you don't build anything.

Edward: No.


For all the wealth Edward created as a private equity investor in the movie Pretty Woman, Vivian was puzzled by the notion of any economic activity that didn’t involve producing goods or services. Given the unrestrained speculation that precipitated the current economic crash, it is clear that production, not speculation, needs to lie at the heart of sustainable economic growth.


Every asset class – equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, real estate – has a true economic value that is based on its productive use. However, asset bubbles arise when speculative value outstrips economic value, that is, speculation becomes unhinged from production. As is the case in the current credit crisis, derivatives can fuel the unhinging. While derivatives are used to hedge the risk of losses on investments, it is their use as purely speculative instruments that pushes asset prices to unsustainable levels; levels which are not justifiable by their economic value. Broadly speaking, long-term investment decisions are based on the value that can be derived from the productive use of an asset and as such, investors are only prepared to pay what it is worth. On the other hand, short-term investments tend to be driven by speculation and consequently, such investors are prepared to pay the market price of an asset, regardless of its economic value.


One of the basic rules of trading is to be emotionally detached from investment decisions. However, the nature of speculative investment makes it highly susceptible to the human emotions of greed and fear, which lie at the heart of boom and bust cycles. Perhaps a key role of financial market regulation is to encourage long-term investments over short-term trades, keeping a leash on the market's tendency to get overblown by greed and imploded by fear.


A lot has been said about the sub-prime crisis, with US banks more than willing to give mortgages to people who could not afford them for the simple reason that they could parcel the mortgages up into complex credit derivatives and sell them to international investors. These investors did not buy the derivatives because they understood the structures or could identify their economic value, but because they were willing to gamble on making attractive short-term returns. In retrospect, investment strategies that focused on facilitating productivity and growth in the real economy could have avoided the financial famine we are currently contending with. Sure, the returns would be lower and the economy would be less flushed with cash but the growth would be sustainable and economic slowdowns would be less severe.


Financial services is one of the core engines of the real economy and its fulfilment of this strategic role will always be jeopardised by unchecked speculation. Every investment has a risk factor and as such, there is always a degree of speculation involved. However, sound investment decisions involve a clear understanding of the economic value of a product or service. Economic growth based on speculating on price movements can only have one outcome. Even Vivian would understand that.


Sunday, November 18, 2007

Quickfire: Robbing the Rich, Paying the Poor


It seems credit cards are always in the news for the wrong reasons - so-called rate tarts card hopping to take advantage of 0% balance transfers, insolvent consumers juggling debts from one card to another or irresponsible financial institutions dishing out cards like confetti. However, handled correctly, credit cards can be a tool to turn the table and cream money from financial institutions...twice!

Credit cards typically have an interest-free period of over forty days so as long as the balance is cleared every month, they do not cost anything to use. On the other hand, paying household bills and daily expenses from a bank account continuously decreases the balance and hence the interest earned each month. So, rather than flashing the credit card at every opportunity being financially reckless, it actually makes sense to shift as much expenses as possible to the card and leave the bank balance untouched. That way, maximum interest can be earned on the bank account and zero interest paid on the credit card as long as the balance is cleared at the end of the month.

Given that financial institutions constantly devise new ways of extracting pennies from their customers to boost their multi-billion pound profits, it is about time the spending public went on the offensive and start helping themselves to their institutions' largesse!

Friday, November 02, 2007

Quickfire: MicroPlace


A couple of weeks ago, I had one of my brainwaves (which have been becoming infrequent these days, I might add). I thought about the viability of a P2P finance e-commerce venture; the logic was to create an eBay-like website where ordinary individuals could lend money to each other, with lenders bidding to offer the most favourable interest rates. See, payments could be made and received through services such as PayPal and Google Checkout, and, and, and people could borrow any amount for any length of time, and, and, and they would no longer have to be held to ransome by their banks, and, and, and there would be world peace...

Just as my eyes were lighting up with glee at my newfound goldmine, it crossed my mind that eBay and Google would not be so keen to lend their payment infrastructure to the venture when they could set it up themselves and keep all the profits.

Well, I was right! I just read a BBC News report about MicroPlace, an eBay company that facilitates microfinance investments from everyday investors to the world's working poor. The e-commerce website acts as a broker-dealer linking investors to microfinance organisations across the world, with investments made through PayPal or a regular bank account. eBay are not keeping the profits though; they will be using it to fund their socially beneficial activities. Who says business is all about shareholder value, eh?

I guess my brainwave was not just vapour afterall. Wonder if Google would be willing to play ball...

Thursday, October 25, 2007

From Underdogs to Nintendogs


In the high stakes battle for market dominance in the rapidly growing $37.5 billion video games industry, few gave Nintendo a fighting chance against Sony and Microsoft. Back in 2005 when Sony and Microsoft were unveiling the jaw-dropping technical specifications of the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360 respectively, Nintendo’s underpowered Wii left analysts and gamers alike scratching their heads. Fast forward to 2007 and according to the latest data from VG Chartz, a video game market research company, the Wii has cornered 42.4% of the global next-generation console market, ahead of the Xbox 360’s 40.5% and the PlayStation 3’s 17.1%. Their lead in the next-generation portable game market is even more dramatic, with the Nintendo DS enjoying 67.8% market share while the Sony PlayStation Portable trails at 32.2%.



The turnaround in Nintendo’s fortunes has not been missed by investors and at the close of market on 25 October 2007, Nintendo had a market capitalisation of Y9,407bn ($82.46bn), making it the third-most valuable company in Japan and dwarfing Sony’s Y5,200bn ($45.35bn) despite being a much smaller company.

The meteoric rise of the company is a lesson in visionary leadership and market innovation. After being consigned to irrelevance in the previous two rounds of the console wars, Satoru Iwata, Nintendo CEO, spearheaded a new strategy of expanding the gaming population. The premise was simple: enable everyone to enjoy games regardless of age, gender or gaming experience. They identified three paradigms that needed to be challenged which laid the foundation for their current success:

  1. Video games are entertainment mainly enjoyed by children and young male adults; females and senior citizens hardly play.
  2. Nintendo is for kids.
  3. Great majority of software is short-lived; long-lived software is hard to make.

Defining a new target market of females and senior citizens was a bold departure from convention, where the smart money had always been on the core market of 18-35 year old males. However, it enabled them to eschew the complex and expensive hardware required by traditional gamers, making the Wii a bargain at $250 compared with $350 for the Xbox 360 ($480 for the Elite version) and $350 for the PlayStation 3 ($500 for the premium version). Similarly, the DS Lite retails for $130 while the PlayStation Portable costs $170. The reduced complexity of Nintendo’s hardware also makes game development easier, quicker and cheaper, giving their software a price advantage over the competition.

While the technical specifications of the hardware are relatively low, they have innovative designs which maximise the user experience. Wii’s groundbreaking controllers, ranging from the Nunchuk to the Balance Board, offer gamers more involving ways of interacting with the virtual world. The dual screen design of the DS similarly makes gameplay more engaging and stimulating.

Rather than rely on lifelike graphics and animation to wow gamers, Nintendo has focused on developing simple yet novel games that have a high replay value and appeal to a wider audience. Games such as Brain Training and Nintendogs on the DS have proven a big hit with senior citizens and young girls respectively, and the Wii Sports titles are extremely addictive for gamers of all ages and genders. Not surprisingly, 51% of Wii gamers and 53% of DS gamers are females, compared with 11% of PlayStation 3 gamers, according to a Financial Times report.



Given the runaway success of the Wii, it is inevitable that Sony and Microsoft will be fighting back. Their first response has been to reduce Nintendo’s price advantage, with both companies releasing lower priced versions of their consoles albeit with less storage capacity. In addition, they are developing a wider range of controllers and other accessories as well as a broader range of games to expand their core market. All three companies are also investing in an online games network to offer their respective customers games download and multiplayer services.

With Sony and Microsoft playing catch up, the challenge is for Nintendo to maintain their innovation momentum in hardware and software design, continually redrawing the landscape of the video games industry. If that is achieved, they are bound to remain the top dog for years to come.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Quickfire: The Non-Dom Dilemma


Alistair Darling's pre-budget report has stopped the music at non-domicile residents' tax party. Those residing - but not domiciled - in the UK for seven years or more are now faced with a flat rate of £30,000 per annum or alternatively, paying the additional tax that is due from their overseas income and capital gains. This could lead to three scenarios:
  1. They grit their teeth and show Alistair the money, in which case nothing changes.
  2. They decide the new tax regime makes their non-dom status pointless and so move to the UK permanently after considering other cost of living factors. In which case, demand for housing, transport, schools and other infrastructure increases, albeit minimally.
  3. They decide the new tax regime makes their non-dom status pointless and so move out of the UK completely after considering other cost of living factors. In which case, firms have to fill the gaps and job opportunities open up for domiciles, albeit minimally.
Given the combination of factors that make the UK an attractive destination, I suspect both non-doms and Mr. Darling will be baring their teeth but only one will be a smile...

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Social Technologies – Opportunities and Threats


One of management’s greatest challenges is harnessing the full potential of their workforce to maximise productivity. Given the wealth of skills and knowledge that are possessed by employees, it is expedient to empower each individual and make their resources accessible to the whole organisation. Social technologies such as blogs and wikis provide tools which enable collaboration and information sharing among employees. However their deployment needs to be managed strategically in order to mitigate the associated risks.

The exponential growth in popularity of social networking sites such as MySpace and Blogger is producing a generation of young adults adept at sharing information in a format that is easy to access and understand. As they enter the workforce, businesses can harness their collaboration and communication skills by setting up a blogging system for individuals or teams. Blogs of activities, projects and problem resolutions create a knowledge resource that can be readily accessed in the absence of the employees concerned. Due to their less formal structure, blogs are simpler to set up and maintain than more rigid content management systems and thus employees would be keener to adopt them.

Similarly, the advent of Wikipedia has led to the growth of wikis as a popular tool for collaboration and knowledge sharing. Editable web pages can be updated by employees working jointly on a project or creating a knowledge base such as FAQs. A significant advantage of blogs and wikis is the reduction in the use of emails and file attachments, which can be unwieldy and create duplicate information.

However several IT and management policies need to be instituted before social technologies are deployed. A key challenge is the protection of the confidentiality of sensitive information. Clear policies need to be in place to guide the types of information that can be published on blogs and wikis while different levels of access need to be defined for viewing or editing such information. This also necessitates monitoring to ensure strict compliance with the policies.

There needs to be a robust quality control mechanism in order to maintain a high standard of accuracy and currency of information. While the collaborative use of blogs and wikis increase the likelihood of errors being detected and information kept up-to-date, team leaders or line managers need to take overall responsibility for the sites.

Employees might be less motivated to update the sites if it is perceived as an additional task. Conversely, they might be less efficient in their time management if they have to take time off their core tasks to update the sites. Thus the ideal implementation would be the integration of blogs and wikis into their workflow like other information systems.

The utility of social technologies is in their accessibility; hence careful thought should go into how information is stored as well as how it is retrieved. Blogs and wikis could be deployed in conjunction with enterprise search technologies which would index the information and speed up the retrieval of relevant results by searching for concepts rather than keywords.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Money Talks, Carbon Walks


A commercial intercourse with Africa opens an inexhaustible source of wealth to the manufacturing interests of Great Britain, and to all which the slave-trade is an objection.
[I]t lays open an endless field of commerce to the British manufacturers and merchant adventurers. The manufacturing interest and the general interests are synonymous. The abolition of slavery would be in reality an [sic] universal good.

Olaudah Equiano, a freed slave campaigning for the abolition of the slave trade in the late 18th century, understood that the slave trade was as much an economic issue as it was a moral one. Hence the campaign for its abolition would need to stretch beyond moral reasoning and embrace economic interests. Over two centuries later, a combination of ethical obligations and financial incentives is once again spurring the global community into action.

The adverse changes in the environment triggered by the burning of fossil fuels have been a focus of continuing debate within scientific, political and business circles. There is a growing consensus that modern society’s insatiable appetite for energy is eroding the climate’s delicate balance, with wide-ranging effects from rising temperatures and sea levels to devastating tsunamis and hurricanes.

However, while the moral case for preserving the environment for future generations is compelling, the socioeconomic costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions hinder the implementation of corrective measures. In E&E TV's OnPoint interview program aired on 13 December 2005, Margo Thorning, managing director of the International Council for Capital Formation, argues that European governments do not have the political will to impose energy taxes high enough, across all sectors of the economy, to force energy use down. “We found, using a broad macroeconomic analysis, that the gross domestic product of four major EU countries would be significantly reduced [if they imposed taxes high enough to hit their targets],” says Ms. Thorning. “So the economic consequences of actually trying to hit the targets are quite significant.”

The Kyoto Protocol establishes a mechanism for international trading in emissions as well as project-based mechanisms including the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation. These provide a strong incentive for economies to invest both domestically and internationally in clean energy. In addition to energy savings that would be achieved, some of the cost could be recouped by trading their emissions credits. The EU estimates that with its Emissions Trading Scheme, the cost of meeting its Kyoto targets should be between €2.9 billion and €3.7 billion annually, less than 0.1 per cent of GDP. The cost of meeting the targets without the scheme could spiral to €6.8 billion annually.

Economic activities are based on scarcity in relation to supply and demand, so placing a limit on carbon emissions provides the price mechanism on which a carbon market can be built. Using the cap-and-trade system, the EU ETS rewards energy-efficient companies while simultaneously sanctioning companies that breach their carbon emissions quota. This encourages companies to develop processes and technologies that reduce carbon emissions, to the mutual benefit of both the economy and the environment.

Rapidly developing economies such as China and India – major sources of emissions growth – are excluded from emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The Development Research Centre of China’s State Council forecasts 8 per cent GDP growth annually from 2006 to 2010. The country’s energy requirement, dominated by coal and oil, is set to keep pace with its GDP growth. “If China alone just develops on business as usual, no special environmental policies or changes, all the coal plants that it will build in the next 20 years will make it impossible to reach any of the targets to prevent the worst damage from climate change,” says Vijay Vaitheeswaran, energy and environment correspondent for The Economist in the 18 October 2005 episode of OnPoint.

The CDM provides the financial incentives for technologically advanced countries to share their emission-saving technologies with less developed countries that do not have emissions targets. The savings resulting from the technology transfer can be credited towards their own emissions targets. Mr. Vaitheeswaran adds that rich countries like the US can bear the cost of developing new technologies such as IGCC, which is a way of producing cleaner energy from coal: “We can make [these technologies] commonplace and then the Chinese and the Indians will adopt [them].”

Certainly, the US federal government, who still shuns the Kyoto Protocol, is not convinced of the viability of emissions trading. However, their agreement to participate in further talks on international cooperation on climate change signifies willingness to confront the issue as long as the economy is not harmed. Meanwhile, less suspicious state governments are jumping on board, with nine Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.

While environmental activists continue to pressurize governments and businesses to fulfill their moral obligations, the sound of the cash register just might convert boardroom executives into eco-warriors. Like Olaudah Equiano figured, actually.